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USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: [NaijaPolitics] CAN APC SURVIVE A LIKELY BUHARI DEFEAT AT THE POLLS? [Nigerian Elections 2015]

Comments (0) | Wednesday, January 28, 2015


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: 'Okenwa R. Nwosu, M.D.' okenwanwosu@yahoo.com [NaijaPolitics] <NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 7:12 PM
Subject: [NaijaPolitics] CAN APC SURVIVE A LIKELY BUHARI DEFEAT AT THE POLLS?
To: NaijaPolitics@yahoogroups.com


 

Folks,

 

It may indeed be premature to initiate an autopsy of an electoral contest that is yet to happen in a fortnight or so down the road. There is, however, nothing wrong to speculate over an electoral battle that has stirred up emotions in the Nigerian electorate in unprecedented fashion since kickoff of the 2015 election's campaign season. For obvious reasons, there are no reliable third-party tracking polls to indicate which of the main presidential candidates is ahead of the rest, but there are indices that one can utilize in order to guestimate the likely outcome of the February 14th presidential contest. For the purpose of this exercise, I shall utilize three parameters to help me in deciding which candidate is likely to emerge the overall winner after all the votes are cast and tallied. Partisan formations engaged in the contest, candidates' attributes and other miscellaneous issues shall be reviewed and used as main benchmarks in making the final call regarding the presidential election's outcome.

 

Partisan Formations

The two top contending parties in the presidential contest are the ruling party, the PDP and the main opposition alliance, the APC. On February 13, 2015, the All Progressives Congress (APC) came into existence as the result of a merger by Nigeria's three biggest opposition parties – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) - and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Rationale for the merger was to build a partisan formation of the size and strength that would be able to take on the ruling party, the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) during the 2015 general elections. As the new fledgling partisan alignment was getting its footing, a major organizational crisis hit the ranks of the PDP. Before too long, it became clear that the ruling party's crisis also had something to do with the same 2015 general elections which had caused the emergence of the APC. A rift in the PDP climaxed when a group of state governors and some notable party leaders opted to leave the ruling party and form what was then called the "New PDP". It was presumed, even though there was not a formal declaration, that the incumbent President GEJ was intent on seeking a second term in office; a development which did not settle well with adherents of the New PDP who believed that the PDP presidential ticket should be zoned to the North. Having lost out the argument within the ruling party, the New PDP loyalists defected en masse and joined the nascent APC.

 

At this juncture, many began to feel that the domineering era for the ruling party, the PDP, was definitely over. Some pundits had severally predicted the eventual implosion of the PDP because of the many internal crises that had rocked its very foundation since its debut in predawn of the 4th Republic in the late 1990's. The PDP was increasingly being blamed by all and sundry for its inability to meet the expectations of a restive Nigerian electorate who have become impatient with the partisan formation seen to be populated by corrupt and indolent politicians. The combination of declining favorability of the ruling party in eyes of the electorate and the self-inflicted internal rifts in ranks of the PDP helped to elevate the profile of the lead opposition party, APC, despite its short-lived existence. The APC rank and file never lacked in confidence as the new opposition party geared itself up to take on the faltering ruling party during the fast-approaching 2015 general elections. Having a large following in the Far North, Southwest geopolitical zone and in the states of Rivers (Southsouth) and Imo (Southeast), the general impression was that the ruling party has finally met its match in the waxing APC.

 

But the party conventions held to select the presidential flag bearers made all the difference. While remnants of the PDP had no problem in galvanizing their support behind the incumbent President GEJ's reelection bid, the nascent APC had to go through a bruising primary contest during its Lagos convention which ended up with General Muhammadu Buhari as its flag bearer. General Buhari has made 3 previous attempts to run for president but had lost all. But then, he ran under the aegis of smaller partisan formations which never had the size and geographical spread of the emergent APC. In previous outings, the general had made impressive showing in his native Northwest geopolitical zone and contiguous territory where he garnered millions of votes and even won some states. The calculation this time around, at least in minds of some opposition leaders and supporters, is that the new reach offered by the APC in the Southwest and elsewhere may finally tip the table in Buhari's favor.

 

APC, however, has no shortage of drawbacks which can ultimately affect outcome of the February 2015 general elections. Being a brand new party without any electoral-contest history in its repertoire, some of its members with deep pockets like the former Lagos state governor, Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu and others stepped up to practically hijack the APC. The choice of Lagos for the APC national convention and the emergence of General Buhari as presidential flag bearer portend Tinubu's imprimatur in a glaring manner. Tinubu is reported to have since been pressuring General Buhari, despite the fact that the presidential election is still pending, to commit upfront to assigning some oilfields of the Niger Delta and other perks to him as recompense for supporting the latter's bid during the party primaries and for anticipated help to win in the general elections. This revelation has not helped APC's image, at all, as the party of change which promises to do things differently from what allegedly obtains within the ruling party, the PDP. APC is till the new kid in town. Whether it can muster what it would take to match the ruling party toe-to-toe at the polls remains a big question mark.

 

Candidates' Character, Qualifications & Attributes

Without beating about the bush, it is easy to ascertain that President GEJ, as the incumbent, has better reach within the electorate than the opposition candidate, General Buhari, for obvious reasons. President GEJ also has a psychological edge over his challenger because he had beaten the general once before during the 2011 general elections. General Buhari carries the baggage as a former military dictator who had overthrown a democratically elected civilian government led by former President Shehu Shagari in 1983 – a liability that President GEJ does not have. The APC flag bearer has been accused, among other things, to lack the demeanor required to be at the helm of Africa's largest constitutional democracy. A recent one-hour U Tube video documentary narrating General Buhari's earlier life and career, including his track record as a former Nigerian head of state, has caused tremendous damage to the opposition candidate's image among the general populace. Whether the revelations contained in this unflattering video documentary are enough to seal the fate of APC candidate's presidential hopes is yet to be determined.

 

Miscellaneous Factors

There are other sundry issues which can influence voters' decision making during the polls. These range from how the voters feel about their personal wellbeing, security and future prospects as citizens of a nation to be led by whoever wins in the February 14th general elections. The national economy, Boko Haram insurgency, national politics as emblemized by the 2014 National Conference, public sponsorship by institutions, groups and civil society etc have the potential of tilting the voters' decision one way or the other. For sake of brevity, I shall not expatiate further on this parameter despite the important role it might play in influencing voters' choices.

 

Conclusion

My personal bias in favor of President GEJ's reelection bid is hereby restated.

 

Based on the summary discourse about the three parameters chosen by me for the purpose of this post, it is becoming clearer that the odds have definitely shifted in favor of President GEJ's reelection bid. It is, particularly, noteworthy that the Pan Yoruba leadership body, Afenifere, came out yesterday to provide a crucial boost to President GEJ's reelection bid. This goes a long way to neutralize the supposed large following that the opposition candidate, General Buhari, has garnered in the Southwest geopolitical zone where Lagos and other states are controlled by APC-affiliated regional parties. As things stand, President GEJ and Buhari may end up dividing votes from the Southwest 50-50 – a possibility which is a departure from previous supposition that the zone would be won handily by the opposition presidential candidate.

 

From my crystal ball, I see President GEJ winning states of the Southsouth and Southeast handily. I also project that he shall win the majority of states of the Northcentral zone. Buhari is likely to win plurality of votes cast in Northeast and Northwest as he did in 2011, but that shall fall far short in making up for the incumbent President GEJ's lead in total votes. In final analysis, the President's re-election bid looks like a shoo-in from my vantage point, even though it is still two full weeks from the polling day.

 

This brings me to the question of what shall happen to the nascent opposition alliance, APC, if General Buhari fails again at his 4th presidential bid? The real answer is that nobody knows for sure what shall become of the APC. But if I were wagering, my bet is that the opposition alliance shall likely collapse by breaking up back into its constituent partisan alignments. APC, according to its founders 2 years ago, was coupled together for the primary purpose of taking on the PDP in the 2015 general elections. If the quest to topple the ruling party fails, the natural thing shall be for the opposition amalgam to fracture and break up since there is really no ideological basis for the APC to cohere when no national electoral contests are in view.

 

Okenwa.

__._,_.___

Posted by: "Okenwa R. Nwosu, M.D." <okenwanwosu@yahoo.com>
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Digest for rec.food.cooking@googlegroups.com - 25 updates in 8 topics

Comments (0) |

"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 02:05PM -0600

"Pico Rico" wrote in message news:ma6uqe$dh$1@news.mixmin.net...
 
 
"Cheri" <cherig3@newsguy.com> wrote in message
news:ma6fq40298h@news3.newsguy.com...
 
> Cheri
 
> or our elections, but they are majorly owned by unions and poverty pimps
> too.
 
The Koch malfeasants are spending almost a billion this year to tilt the
election. This is roughly equal to what each party can spend, so basically
they want to double the ability to generate mindless propaganda for one
side. Not that both sides aren't mindless but it should be a fair fight.
Just sayin'. Money isn't speech and IMO the government has failed to protect
the elective process from this sort of corruption for many decades. I say
make a law that gives any qualified candidate x amount of money equal to
every other candidate for national elections. That's all they get, so make
it count, and if they can't make it count, that says something about whether
a candidate is worthy of one's vote. One percent of the population is not
entitled to the biggest voice by any kind of structure and the "money is
speech" nonsense is just an excuse to circumvent structures intended to
prevent the purchasing of election results by the highest bidder. And same
for Democratic PACs. They will have donors who are willing to fight back
with even more huge sums of money which goes almost exclusively for the
generation of negative, non-informational, idiot-bait advertising geared
towards those who do not bother to read past the first line of anything, and
can't be bothered to think anything through for themselves. Those are the
kinds of voters who get led around by the nose with all the dirty money. The
whole thing stinks.
"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 02:15PM -0600

"Jeßus" wrote in message news:o2ddca10sb0aa6piugqe7od83o11m6koac@4ax.com...
 
 
 
> I don't understand...
 
Indeed. But then WhyTF should you give a damn about a sporting event in a
country that's foreign to you in a sport that's even more foreign to you?
It's OUR sporting event, fool, not yours, so go lay down somewhere and STFU.
"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 02:20PM -0600

wrote in message
news:a46f41c7-a529-4579-a613-f84fa20bef9d@googlegroups.com...
 
> I'm only interested in WVU football and they normally suck.
 
But there's always next year, right? That's the lament of the loyal fan. But
then sports would be a lot less fun if there were no loyal fans.
 
MartyB
"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 02:37PM -0600

"Jeßus" wrote in message news:71fdcat86gl085r7lojkr2sbbsl5md81db@4ax.com...
 
 
 
>It's none of your business what I or anyone else cares to discuss on
>here, arse-hat.
 
Wrong, arse-munch. Just like it's your business if you feel the need to post
stupid and insutling shit all the time, it's also anyone else's business
who wants to comment on the crap you blather on about.
 
> Aside from that, rubbish like the superbowl is
> impossible to avoid, even if one isn't american OR watches TV.
 
Bull Shit. You live ten damned thousand miles away, jackass. You are NOT
being crammed with a constant feed of Superbowl related programming. STFU
and go lay down somewhere, and stop telling lies.
 
 
>>Just shut up. Shut the hell up.
 
> LOL. Are you serious?
> Make me shut up :)
 
I bet you're excited about your upcoming 12th birthday.
 
>> It's just on one channel. Did you lose your tv remote?
 
> I don't have a 'tv.
 
Even more proof you are totally lying about being somehow inundated with
Superbowl media. "Impossible to avoid" from ten thousand miles away? Damn,
dimbulb, I need to get out my hip waders, the bullshit is getting deep in
here.
"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 02:45PM -0600

"jmcquown" wrote in message news:cioeilF4vr0U1@mid.individual.net...
 
On 1/25/2015 4:05 PM, sf wrote:
 
>> baked Buffalo
>> Cauliflower "wings".
 
> I don't know what Buffalo *cauliflower* wings are
 
"Baked buffalo cauliflower 'wings'"? Nobody knows what that is.
 
Buffalo wings... ok, that's a real dish. But this is a true triumph of the
abuse of nomenclature. Baked instead of fried, attributed wrongly to
Buffalo, not even chicken... yeah, right.
 
When plants fly.
"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 03:01PM -0600

"Sqwertz" wrote in message news:kwb8lso0eyf3$.dlg@sqwertz.com...
 
 
 
> Every year it's the same 'ol story. People who like or watch football
> are stupid.
 
-sw
 
Have you looked into remedial reading classes? They said they don't like
football, or don't watch it, or whatever. Noboy (except maybe that Jebus
whiner who hates all things American) said anything about those who enjoy
football being stupid. Not that people telling us they don't like football
is germane to the discussion of what those who do are serving. That doesn't
make any sense either. But there's no need for gratuitous hyperbole.
"Nunya Bidnits" <nunyabidnits@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 03:13PM -0600

"Kody" wrote in message news:ma62hh$epe$1@dont-email.me...
 
 
> I didn't expect quite so many people to come out so strongly against
> football,
 
Ignore them, they are just pissed that nobody invited them to a Superbowl
party. ;-)
 
Looks like we'll be having hot wings, deep fried shrimp, maybe some tater
tots, a cucumber/onion quick pickle, and some store-bought hummus or some
similar dipping glop. And assorted snack stuff, sodas, beer, whisky, spiced
rum, and scotch.
 
And I'm in a pool which pays out every quarter based on the sum of the
score. Last year I had crappy numbers.... until Manning muffed the opening
play for a 2 point safety, skewing things my way for the entire game. Oh
happy day!
 
MartyB
jmcquown <j_mcquown@comcast.net>: Jan 28 02:58PM -0500

On 1/28/2015 2:50 PM, Dave Smith wrote:
 
>> That's a given. :) Spring and Fall are nice because I can open the
>> windows and be comfortable for a few weeks.
 
> I am quite comfortable with my widows open from May through to October.
 
I'm sure you are. :) It starts getting warm here in April, maybe May,
and is pretty much humid, hot and uncomfortable through October. I
still make soup because yes, I have AC. I can't deal with extreme heat.
I do make and eat soup year round.
 
Jill
Dave Smith <adavid.smith@sympatico.ca>: Jan 28 03:03PM -0500

On 2015-01-28 2:58 PM, jmcquown wrote:
> and is pretty much humid, hot and uncomfortable through October. I
> still make soup because yes, I have AC. I can't deal with extreme heat.
> I do make and eat soup year round.
 
Thank goodness we don't have extreme cold here. It hovers in the 15-35F
range most of the winter, rarely getting down to 0F. We think of it as
a heat wave when it gets into the 80s. When it hits 90 they issue heat
advisories.
ImStillMags <sitara8060@gmail.com>: Jan 28 01:12PM -0800

On Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 9:04:59 AM UTC-8, jmcquown wrote:
> cheddar cheese (I used sharp cheddar). Stir in the veggies and heat
> through. Adjust for salt & pepper (it only needed pepper).
 
> Jill
 
Your recipe is less involved than mine. We made this soup in 5 gallon batches for the restaurant. It was one of the customers favorites.
 
http://www.hizzoners.com/index.php/recipes/soups/166-broccoli-cauliflower-a-cheese-soup
Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.net>: Jan 28 02:58PM -0500

On 1/28/2015 1:44 PM, Ophelia wrote:
 
> Plenty more here:
 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2929967/New-England-left-dig-Juno-three-feet-snow-icy-floods-pummel-Massachusetts-Connecticut-Long-Island-way.html
 
You got better coverage than our paper here. They mentioned Auburn MA
getting 36". That is about 20 miles north of me, a palce I go to
frequently. We eded up with 26". I got the rest of my driveway and
cars cleared this moening.
 
I closed our work today too. A few people would not have made it and
the plowing was not completed yet. We have our own pickup with plow and
this was just too much to keep up with.
Dave Smith <adavid.smith@sympatico.ca>: Jan 28 03:06PM -0500

On 2015-01-28 2:58 PM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
 
> I closed our work today too. A few people would not have made it and
> the plowing was not completed yet. We have our own pickup with plow and
> this was just too much to keep up with.
 
 
Buffalo often gets that much and the the residents don't even blink.
When it gets up to 36" they think of it as a significant snowfall.
jmcquown <j_mcquown@comcast.net>: Jan 28 03:06PM -0500

On 1/28/2015 2:58 PM, Ed Pawlowski wrote:
 
> I closed our work today too. A few people would not have made it and
> the plowing was not completed yet. We have our own pickup with plow and
> this was just too much to keep up with.
 
My occasional neighbors (they're seasonal residents) arrived in South
Carolina from wherever MA a couple of days ahead of the storm. It sure
sounds to me like they just didn't want to deal with it. Then again,
they're in their 80's.
 
Jill
"Ophelia" <Ophelia@elsinore.invalid>: Jan 28 08:10PM

"Ed Pawlowski" <esp@snet.net> wrote in message
news:atGdnUuaVOfholTJnZ2dnUU7-Y2dnZ2d@giganews.com...
 
> I closed our work today too. A few people would not have made it and the
> plowing was not completed yet. We have our own pickup with plow and this
> was just too much to keep up with.
 
Are you in one of the the affected areas mentioned in that report? The
pictures are horrific!
 
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk/shop/
Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.net>: Jan 28 03:21PM -0500

On 1/28/2015 3:06 PM, jmcquown wrote:
 
> sounds to me like they just didn't want to deal with it. Then again,
> they're in their 80's.
 
> Jill
 
Good for them. I have a 20' walk in front of the house from the
driveway, then a couple of steps to the door. It will take me 20
minutes to clear it. I figured if a kid going by wanted to do it, I'd
pay 20 bucks. Not easy work, but still a good hourly rate. A bit
later. there was a knock at the door. Two teenagers offered to shovel
it for me. I asked how much and they wanted $25 apiece. No thanks.
I'll do it later. I clear it for safety as we never use that door
anyway.
Ed Pawlowski <esp@snet.net>: Jan 28 03:27PM -0500

On 1/28/2015 3:10 PM, Ophelia wrote:
>> and this was just too much to keep up with.
 
> Are you in one of the the affected areas mentioned in that report? The
> pictures are horrific!
 
Just deep snow, no damage here.
"Ophelia" <Ophelia@elsinore.invalid>: Jan 28 09:03PM

"Ed Pawlowski" <esp@snet.net> wrote in message
news:roOdnS1yGo6j21TJnZ2dnUU7-a-dnZ2d@giganews.com...
 
>> Are you in one of the the affected areas mentioned in that report? The
>> pictures are horrific!
 
> Just deep snow, no damage here.
 
Good! Hard work to clear it though, eh?
 
--
http://www.helpforheroes.org.uk/shop/
Nancy2 <ellorysgirl@gmail.com>: Jan 28 12:55PM -0800

I warm rolls, heat single serving entrees, make toast in my toaster oven. I have plenty of
counter space. I rarely broil anything.
 
N.
Nancy Young <rjynlyordnospam@verizon.net>: Jan 28 03:53PM -0500

On 1/27/2015 12:48 PM, Melba's Jammin' wrote:
> Six inches throws you for a loop? That's different. ;-) Do you not
> typically get much snow where you are? If that's the case, I can see
> where that amount would be daunting. Take care and be warm.
 
Thought you'd laugh; in the paper today, talking about
the Blizzard that Fizzled (here, at least), a reporter
wrote: In places like South Dakota and Minnesota, they have
a term for the weather we wound up with Tuesday: Partly cloudy.
 
Heh.
 
nancy
Dave Smith <adavid.smith@sympatico.ca>: Jan 28 03:13PM -0500

On 2015-01-28 3:03 PM, Bruce wrote:
 
> "... but it's not like it's all natural or a particularly great list
> of ingredients which include fake vanilla and palm oil, albeit low on
> the list.)"
 
Fake vanilla? I presume that means artificial vanilla, and that is
common in most commercial products. It costs half as much and most
people can't tell the difference. Heck, given the amount of grocery
store shelf space and the brands and sizes of artificial vanilla
compared to real vanilla extract, it is pretty clear that most people
are using it at home as well. If you want products with real vanilla
extract you will be paying premium prices.
dsi1 <dsi1@eternal-september.invalid>: Jan 28 10:46AM -1000

On 1/28/2015 10:13 AM, Dave Smith wrote:
> compared to real vanilla extract, it is pretty clear that most people
> are using it at home as well. If you want products with real vanilla
> extract you will be paying premium prices.
 
It doesn't matter to me what the heck is in a candy bar. The only thing
that matters is if I like it or not. People fool themselves into
thinking they have discriminating tastes. It makes them feel better
about themselves and their lives. Mostly, all it means is they put more
weight on what's printed on a label than what's on their tongue.
 
Not knowing a thing about a product is the only way to evaluate without
prejudice. Evaluating without prejudice can rock your world and your
beliefs but that's a small price to pay for truth.
ImStillMags <sitara8060@gmail.com>: Jan 28 12:43PM -0800

On Wednesday, January 28, 2015 at 9:40:03 AM UTC-8, ImStillMags wrote:
> Here's a really informative article about chili, specifically Texas chili and it's roots. I enjoyed reading it and learned some things.
 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/dining/texas-chili-makes-a-welcome-guest.html?mabReward=CTM&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine&_r=0
 
Here's the video mentioned in the article. It's so sweet.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLETmNKPd_A
Bruce <Bruce@Bruce.invalid>: Jan 29 07:03AM +1100

On Wed, 28 Jan 2015 07:50:00 -0800 (PST), Bryan-TGWWW
 
>Good news if you want hazelnut KitKats. ALDI has a hazelnut version.
 
>http://www.candyblog.net/blog/item/choceur_chocolate_crisp_bars
 
>Way better than anything Hershey's or Cadbury makes.
 
Did you read the last sentence of your link?
 
"... but it's not like it's all natural or a particularly great list
of ingredients which include fake vanilla and palm oil, albeit low on
the list.)"
 
--
Bruce
Bruce <Bruce@Bruce.invalid>: Jan 29 07:28AM +1100

On Wed, 28 Jan 2015 15:13:46 -0500, Dave Smith
>compared to real vanilla extract, it is pretty clear that most people
>are using it at home as well. If you want products with real vanilla
>extract you will be paying premium prices.
 
I'd rather not eat it than get a chemical replacement, but each to
their own. The thing is that Bryan wrote the following somewhere else
in this thread:
 
"The chocolate that I'm eating as I type this (Choceur) is made with
real vanilla. Most chocolate is made with vanillin (Hershey's...). "
 
--
Bruce
Bruce <Bruce@Bruce.invalid>: Jan 29 07:34AM +1100

On Wed, 28 Jan 2015 11:58:03 -0000, "Ophelia"
>> wildlife.
 
>Ahh yes:) Cats are a different kettle of fish ... err.. if you see what I
>mean ;-)
 
Yes, a very different beast :) I like both.
 
--
Bruce
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USA Africa Dialogue Series - Geography African Environment and Health Position

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Dear Friends:
The African Studies Program and the Geography Department at the Pennsylvania State University (Penn State at University Park) are teaming up to hire a geographer who specializes in Environment and Health in Africa at the rank of Assistant/Associate prof. level. Please help us advertize the position.  The job Ad is attached.

Kind Regards,

Kidane Mengisteab


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